Royals vs Orioles Clash in Crucial Wild Card Showdown: A Playoff Preview
The Kansas City Royals vs Orioles are set to clash today in the MLB Wild Card playoffs at Oriole Park, marking the second chapter of a thrilling three-game postseason series. Let’s delve into the dynamics of this matchup and explore some predictions, particularly from a betting angle.
The Royals concluded their regular season with an impressive 86-76 record, finishing 6.5 games shy of the Cleveland Guardians, who clinched the AL Central title. Nevertheless, Kansas City secured a Wild Card berth. In their playoff opener against Baltimore on Tuesday, the Royals narrowly triumphed 1-0 in a tightly contested defensive struggle, where both teams managed only a total of 10 hits—five each. Starting pitcher Cole Ragans delivered an admirable performance, tossing five innings while allowing four hits, issuing no walks, and striking out eight batters. For Game 2 today, the Royals will hand the ball to Seth Lugo. This season, Lugo has posted a commendable record of 16-9 alongside a 3.00 ERA over 33 starts. Though he has participated in three postseason contests, his ERA remains pristine, and he holds one save in two innings of relief.
On the flip side, the Orioles finished their regular season with a 91-71 record, narrowly missing the AL East championship by three games to the New York Yankees. In their postseason debut on Tuesday, the Orioles struggled offensively, managing only one hit after the sixth inning and drawing a mere two walks. Corbin Burnes endured a tough outing, pitching eight innings while surrendering five hits, one walk, and recording three strikeouts, ultimately suffering the loss. Zach Eflin will take the mound for Baltimore in Game 2. He wrapped up the regular season with a 10-9 record and a 3.59 ERA over 28 starts. In his postseason career, Eflin is 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA spanning 11 games, including one start.
The Royals’ last six games as underdogs have all gone UNDER the total runs line. Similarly, six of the Orioles’ last seven playoff games have also finished UNDER that threshold. The “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” trend has been consistent for the Orioles, hitting in their last seven day games. This same trend applies to the Royals, as they have hit the UNDER in their last four day games against American League foes.
For the Orioles, Zach Eflin has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three home games against teams with a winning record. He has secured victories in five of his last six home appearances against AL Central teams. Jordan Westburg has driven in at least one run in three of his last four day games against winning AL Central opponents. Jorge Mateo has crossed home plate in 11 of his last 13 home games against AL teams with winning records, while Cedric Mullins boasts a remarkable track record, recording at least one hit in 18 of his last 19 home games against AL Central opponents.
On the other hand, Seth Lugo has achieved victories in three of his last four road appearances against AL East rivals. Vinnie Pasquantino has delivered at least one RBI in each of his last eight Wednesday games against teams with winning records. Salvador Perez has consistently recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals vs Orioles ’ last 15 games as road underdogs against AL East competition.
As for the prediction, I’m inclined to favor the Orioles in this matchup. If Baltimore can exploit Lugo early on, they could find themselves in a favorable position. Lugo has struggled recently, going 0-1 in his last two outings but limiting opponents to just two earned runs over nine innings (with one start lasting 7.0 innings). However, on September 16 against the Tigers, he faltered, yielding four earned runs in just 4.2 innings of work.
In Tuesday’s opener, the Orioles’ offense was largely dormant, aside from Cedric Mullins’ standout 2-for-3 performance. Fortunately for Baltimore, they only needed to utilize two pitchers, Keegan Akin and Seranthony Dominguez, for a single inning in relief. With several options available on the mound today, the Orioles will need their offense to come alive to secure a critical victory.
